It’s the economy, says David Smith. Also, unlike 2016, Trump is running a highly organized, well-funded campaign. And Trump’s opposition is split.

On that last point: The Republicans are a minority party and, paradoxically, that is their strength. Every Republican is signed on to their agenda of white supremacy, xenophobia, gun fetishization, sex policing, preserving property rights, and their version of Christianity, which conveniently leaves out the bits about loving the stranger and least fortunate.

Whereas the Democrats are an unruly coalition of white moderates, second- and third-generation Eastern and Southern European immigrants, first-generation immigrants, Jews, African-Americans, minorities, socialists, LGBTQs, feminists and I’m probably missing some. Some of those groups disagree. For example, immigrants and African-Americans tend to be socially conservative, which puts them at odds with the LGBTQs and feminists. Those white moderates can’t stand the socialists, and vice versa. And yet they’re all supposedly one party.